bluesbuffett

Sunday, August 20, 2006

98% of all statistics are made up

"You can never plan the future by the past." Edmund Burke.
This 18th century Anglo-Irish Whig strongly supported the cause of the American Colonies in their struggle against George III, as well as opposing the French Revolution. A political theorist, statesman, author, orator and philosopher. Not a time-keeper.
If he had thought a little more deeply about his statement, Edmund would probably have reached the same conclusion as I did yesterday. You CAN plan the future using the past as a guide. It's just that, at yesterday's West Met Prospect handicap race, Merv didn't.
My Year 2 Uni statistics course showed me conclusively that you cannot derive a mean, modal or median average from a range of numbers which are outside the average. For example: my handicap time had me down for an estimated 8:10 min run over the 2k. Interesting, however my fastest run this year on all courses has been 8.16 min. My time over the exact same course on 24/06 was 9:14 min. My mean average time (across 11 races this season) was 9:13 min. I got a "go time" of 4:20 min, meaning my estimated finish time was 8:10 min as the first runner went at +12:30 min.
My son, with a season's mean average of 8:07 min, got a 7:30 min estimate, or "go" time of 5:00 min. Meaning he would probably overtake me at about 1.5k.
But... he had a cold, and didn't want to go too hard; he just wanted to beat dad. Well, he didn't. He finished way behind me in 14:00 min from "go", meaning a net time of 9:00 min. I finished in 13:22 min, or net time of 9:02 min (12 second PB). So, he beat me by 2 seconds net, which was a big come-down from normal, but not across the line! Yay me...
It was his birthday Saturday, so he didn't want to push too hard, being mindful of the upcoming celebrations. We'll see him and ED on Monday, so it will be presents and food galore, with YD helping to open all gifts.
Apart from yesterday's 2k controversy, I managed a few good runs:
Fri 11k M7 lunchtime; weights
Sat morning 12k KR
Sun 18k home/M7/Rooty Hill; weights
It would appear that the August record k's attempt is back on track. That's not the surprise.
What IS surprising is my boss taking up walking in the mornings before work. This is a man who often told me I had serious issues to deal with - why was I so "obsessed" with running? A man who suggested to all one lunchtime at the Royal Cricketers Arms that running served no purpose unless training for a specific race was the end goal. A man who would rather enjoy a quality red with his wife than exercise. In short, a mad, bad and dangerous man.
Having attended a senior level Retreat, he now realises the importance of maintaining a healthy body along with an agile mind. My worry is that I will be regaled with exercise stories...

A brief listen to "Surprise" by Paul Simon left me favourably impressed, generally. A few tracks not unlike some mid 70's songs, and certainly nothing like the disastrous "Songs From The Capeman".
Interesting to learn speedygeoff's (http://geoffmoore.blogspot.com/) link with The Idea Of North. I'd love to see them live, but fear they don't venture out northwest, and I'm not likely to make it into the Basement. Still, "The Gospel Project" is worth a listen.

Books? I'm currently reading Robert Fulghum's "Maybe, Maybe Not". A good follow-up to "It was on fire when I lay down on it". An interesting guy, with some witty, pithy and intelligent thoughts...

And Spring is just around the corner, so soon the pool blanket will come off, the solar heater will kick into overdrive, and the family will start summer a little early!

"Exit, stage left"

4 Comments:

  • At 8:48 pm, Blogger Beth said…

    Great run - well done on the PB! Just nod and smile when the stories start you lucky thing! LOL!

     
  • At 10:38 am, Blogger go girl said…

    I forgot to ask you about your run on Saturday, Well done on the PB!

    Thanks for the suggestion on the parkway it was a great run.

     
  • At 9:09 am, Blogger Tesso said…

    Hey BB, my boss is mad and bad and dangerous too. But at least he likes to talk about running (he dabbles) and exercise so he does have some saving graces.

     
  • At 7:46 pm, Blogger Don Juan said…

    Statistics don't work in footy tipping.

    Congratulations on the PB.

     

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